I'm gonna tell you how it's gonna be. "Not Fade Away"-The Rolling Stones
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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28–12 on winners spread MAE 7.1 40 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Nebraska @ Michigan State +17.4 154.2 90% 67–79 ✓
Houston @ South Florida -17.6 127.4 12% 83–66 ✓
Alabama @ Florida +0.9 147.7 55% 83–70 ✗
Ole Miss @ Tennessee +17.8 135.7 89% 60–66 ✓
Bowling Green @ Buffalo +5.6 159.9 71% 88–99 ✓
Tulane @ East Carolina +0.8 145.6 53% 80–88 ✓
Temple @ UCF +9.8 137.1 79% 66–62 ✗
Presbyterian @ North Carolina A&T +2.0 137.7 64% 57–65 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Charleston Southern -10.2 144.2 17% 88–63 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Campbell +3.6 133.2 59% 60–54 ✗
Pittsburgh @ Louisville +10.7 132.9 86% 72–75 ✓
Youngstown State @ Robert Morris -4.5 149.1 33% 64–60 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Cleveland State +9.2 152.1 83% 58–65 ✓
VCU @ Dayton +0.4 126.7 38% 53–52 ✗
Davidson @ Saint Joseph's -0.4 142.2 55% 88–73 ✓
Massachusetts @ Richmond +6.1 155.0 78% 72–80 ✓
Chattanooga @ Wofford -0.9 143.4 46% 75–67 ✓
Samford @ Mercer +2.2 143.0 62% 80–83 ✓
Furman @ UNC Greensboro -2.9 137.0 33% 58–54 ✓
VMI @ East Tennessee State +0.9 148.0 55% 79–80 ✓
The Citadel @ Western Carolina +0.7 157.0 58% 90–94 ✓
North Florida @ Florida Gulf Coast +12.8 150.9 88% 67–74 ✓
Syracuse @ Miami +2.6 159.1 66% 87–88 ✓
Milwaukee @ Green Bay +1.3 132.2 50% 63–49 ✗
Creighton @ Villanova +9.9 134.2 80% 41–75 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Mississippi Valley State -7.6 134.6 15% 72–67 ✓
Alabama State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff -3.1 145.8 38% 68–70 ✗
Texas Southern @ Grambling -6.7 136.6 25% 67–61 ✓
Alcorn State @ Jackson State +3.5 130.9 58% 65–50 ✗
Texas Tech @ Iowa State +3.9 128.8 66% 47–51 ✓
North Carolina @ Notre Dame -0.9 145.9 44% 73–78 ✗
Valparaiso @ Northern Iowa +4.6 138.9 67% 65–92 ✓
Missouri State @ Bradley +0.5 139.6 48% 71–69 ✗
Penn State @ Northwestern +7.2 134.4 74% 74–70 ✗
SE Louisiana @ Houston Christian -7.5 142.7 20% 90–81 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ San Francisco -3.2 137.1 32% 79–74 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ McNeese -1.1 149.8 50% 82–92 ✗
Radford @ South Carolina Upstate -1.1 139.6 44% 82–77 ✓
NJIT @ UMass Lowell +6.7 133.6 72% 77–72 ✗
Northwestern State @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +11.6 150.9 84% 67–89 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.