Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | ND +105 UNC -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +5 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -2.0 (+7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.2 (+4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -1.7 (+6.7) | 142.6 (+8.4) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -1.2 (+6.2) | 145.0 (+6.0) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -0.9 (+5.9) | 145.9 (+5.1) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -1.1 (+6.1) | 145.1 (+5.9) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | UNC 91 – 69 ND |
| Mar 12, 2025 | UNC 76 – 56 ND |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UNC 74 – 73 ND |
| Mar 6, 2024 | UNC 84 – 51 ND |
| Feb 23, 2023 | UNC 63 – 59 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 29-10 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 15-5 |
| Home | 14-1 | 15-2 |
| Away | 7-5 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 2-5 | 6-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 77.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#106) | 10.6 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.78 (#110) | 1.88 (#53) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#120) | 2.51 (#49) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#95) | 0.598 (#37) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 40.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 77.5% | 78.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 13.9% |
Game Analysis
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