Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Under |
| Money | UAPB +145 ALST -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAPB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAPB +2 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | ALST -2.4 (+4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.7 (-12.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -1.9 (+3.9) | 145.4 (-7.4) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -2.7 (+4.7) | 142.5 (-4.5) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -3.1 (+5.1) | 145.8 (-7.8) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -2.9 (+4.9) | 144.3 (-6.3) | 32% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | ALST 79 – 61 UAPB |
| Jan 5, 2026 | UAPB 90 – 79 ALST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | ALST 75 – 63 UAPB |
| Jan 7, 2025 | ALST 93 – 91 UAPB |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UAPB 80 – 74 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAPB | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-24 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 8-10 |
| Home | 5-7 | 6-6 |
| Away | 2-17 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.9 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.3 | 75.6 |
| Massey | -15.1 (#351) | -8.4 (#305) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.73 (#351) | -1.89 (#313) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.23 (#352) | -2.86 (#328) |
| RPI | 0.435 (#282) | 0.441 (#272) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAPB | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.4% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 27.0% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 26.6 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.61 | 0.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.0% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 24.3% |
| ORB% | 20.5% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.7% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 62.9% | 65.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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