Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.0 Under |
| Money | VILL -650 CREI +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +34 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -12.9 (+21.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.2 (-15.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -10.4 (+23.6) | 130.7 (-14.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -9.1 (+24.9) | 133.7 (-17.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -9.9 (+24.1) | 134.2 (-18.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -9.9 (+24.1) | 131.0 (-15.0) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | VILL 80 – 69 CREI |
| Jan 8, 2026 | CREI 76 – 72 VILL |
| Feb 1, 2025 | CREI 62 – 60 VILL |
| Dec 21, 2024 | CREI 86 – 79 VILL |
| Mar 9, 2024 | CREI 69 – 67 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-8 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 12-7 |
| Home | 12-1 | 11-4 |
| Away | 8-5 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 10-2 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.7 | 66.4 |
| Massey | 16.3 (#13) | 7.7 (#66) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.93 (#18) | 2.48 (#33) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.23 (#16) | 4.42 (#12) |
| RPI | 0.654 (#11) | 0.590 (#42) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.1% | 13.5% |
Game Analysis
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