Betting Lines
| Spread | AAMU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | MVSU +270 AAMU -340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MVSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AAMU +5 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | AAMU -8.9 (+3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.4 (+1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AAMU -6.6 (+1.6) | 134.7 (+4.3) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AAMU -8.1 (+3.1) | 135.5 (+3.5) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AAMU -7.6 (+2.6) | 134.6 (+4.4) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AAMU -6.9 (+1.9) | 134.3 (+4.7) | 17% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | AAMU 72 – 65 MVSU |
| Jan 6, 2026 | AAMU 71 – 51 MVSU |
| Feb 16, 2025 | AAMU 82 – 70 MVSU |
| Jan 7, 2025 | AAMU 79 – 67 MVSU |
| Feb 17, 2024 | AAMU 80 – 57 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MVSU | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2-26 | 12-18 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 10-8 |
| Home | 0-11 | 6-3 |
| Away | 2-15 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 61.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.0 | 67.0 |
| Massey | -22.4 (#358) | -9.3 (#315) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.76 (#352) | -1.50 (#288) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.48 (#354) | -1.92 (#285) |
| RPI | 0.393 (#326) | 0.414 (#309) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MVSU | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.5% | 37.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 26.6% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.8% | 40.4% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 24.5% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 17.8% | 14.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 62.2% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 63.6% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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