Betting Lines
| Spread | RAD -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | UPST +145 RAD -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RAD +5 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | RAD -0.1 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.2 (+29.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RAD -1.0 (-4.0) | 138.1 (+20.9) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RAD -0.7 (-4.3) | 135.7 (+23.3) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RAD -1.1 (-3.9) | 139.6 (+19.4) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UPST -0.6 (-5.6) | 139.6 (+19.4) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | RAD 71 – 59 UPST |
| Dec 31, 2025 | RAD 76 – 69 UPST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | RAD 79 – 69 UPST |
| Jan 11, 2025 | RAD 80 – 67 UPST |
| Mar 7, 2024 | RAD 67 – 60 UPST |
Game Analysis
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