Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | LOU -800 PITT +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +3 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -13.4 (-10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.9 (+23.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -10.5 (-7.5) | 132.2 (+14.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -10.6 (-7.6) | 132.6 (+14.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -10.7 (-7.7) | 132.9 (+14.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -10.3 (-7.3) | 133.7 (+13.3) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2026 | LOU 100 – 59 PITT |
| Mar 1, 2025 | LOU 79 – 68 PITT |
| Jan 11, 2025 | LOU 82 – 78 PITT |
| Feb 17, 2024 | PITT 86 – 59 LOU |
| Jan 6, 2024 | PITT 83 – 70 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 6-14 |
| Home | 8-8 | 9-11 |
| Away | 2-10 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 61.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 6.9 (#78) | -2.4 (#219) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#64) | -0.59 (#234) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.74 (#73) | -1.03 (#247) |
| RPI | 0.590 (#40) | 0.480 (#213) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 30.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 76.4% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.