Betting Lines
| Spread | FUR -4.0 Push |
| O/U | 131.0 Under |
| Money | UNCG +155 FUR -180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FUR +4 | 112 | Lost |
| Massey | FUR -2.7 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.7 (-24.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FUR -3.4 (-0.6) | 134.0 (-22.0) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FUR -2.5 (-1.5) | 135.7 (-23.7) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FUR -2.9 (-1.1) | 137.0 (-25.0) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FUR -3.9 (-0.1) | 136.7 (-24.7) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | FUR 81 – 75 UNCG |
| Feb 8, 2026 | UNCG 67 – 64 FUR |
| Jan 23, 2026 | FUR 89 – 66 UNCG |
| Feb 15, 2025 | UNCG 58 – 50 FUR |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UNCG 84 – 67 FUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 12-6 |
| Home | 9-5 | 12-3 |
| Away | 7-6 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.6 | 76.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.1 | 68.8 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#218) | 4.7 (#103) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#154) | 0.86 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#147) | 1.00 (#109) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#176) | 0.550 (#92) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 24.1% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 77.2% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 16.2% |
Game Analysis
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