Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Over |
| Money | UNI -330 VAL +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNI +27 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | UNI -6.9 (+20.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.7 (+21.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNI -5.7 (+21.3) | 140.7 (+16.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNI -4.6 (+22.4) | 138.8 (+18.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNI -4.6 (+22.4) | 138.9 (+18.1) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNI -4.2 (+22.8) | 139.6 (+17.4) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | VAL 54 – 44 UNI |
| Dec 30, 2025 | UNI 58 – 48 VAL |
| Mar 8, 2025 | VAL 64 – 63 UNI |
| Jan 4, 2025 | VAL 80 – 73 UNI |
| Feb 28, 2024 | UNI 68 – 54 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNI | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 6-12 |
| Home | 10-4 | 8-8 |
| Away | 9-5 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#122) | 0.0 (#171) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#223) | -0.34 (#213) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.02 (#178) | -0.12 (#189) |
| RPI | 0.471 (#226) | 0.466 (#236) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNI | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 6.6 | 6.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 20.0% | 19.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 83.7% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.9% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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