Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | MER -200 SAM +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +3 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | MER -5.4 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.3 (+21.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -3.8 (-0.8) | 143.0 (+20.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -2.1 (+0.9) | 143.0 (+20.0) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -2.2 (+0.8) | 143.0 (+20.0) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -2.6 (+0.4) | 141.4 (+21.6) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | MER 89 – 86 SAM |
| Feb 7, 2026 | SAM 69 – 49 MER |
| Feb 6, 2025 | SAM 100 – 79 MER |
| Jan 16, 2025 | SAM 75 – 74 MER |
| Mar 9, 2024 | SAM 70 – 57 MER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-4 | 13-2 |
| Away | 4-11 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#224) | -3.7 (#241) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#197) | 1.21 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#204) | 0.84 (#119) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#201) | 0.521 (#130) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 22.7% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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