Betting Lines
| Spread | DAV -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Over |
| Money | JOES +170 DAV -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAV +15 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | DAV -0.9 (-14.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (+19.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAV -2.4 (-12.6) | 140.3 (+20.7) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAV -0.9 (-14.1) | 142.2 (+18.8) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAV -0.4 (-14.6) | 142.2 (+18.8) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAV -1.2 (-13.8) | 140.7 (+20.3) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | JOES 70 – 58 DAV |
| Mar 5, 2026 | JOES 70 – 67 DAV |
| Jan 3, 2026 | DAV 62 – 56 JOES |
| Jan 22, 2025 | JOES 78 – 61 DAV |
| Mar 9, 2024 | JOES 89 – 71 DAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-19 | 27-7 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 15-3 |
| Home | 9-7 | 13-1 |
| Away | 1-10 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 74.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 66.1 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#111) | 9.0 (#50) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#137) | 2.58 (#30) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.93 (#115) | 2.56 (#48) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#127) | 0.613 (#30) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 42.4% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 57.7% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 16.0% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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