Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 124.0 Under |
| Money | DAY -200 VCU +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +1 | 105 | Lost |
| Massey | DAY -1.4 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 115.3 (-10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -1.9 (-2.9) | 127.6 (-22.6) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -1.0 (-2.0) | 124.9 (-19.9) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -0.4 (-1.4) | 126.7 (-21.7) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -1.1 (-2.1) | 127.7 (-22.7) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | VCU 70 – 62 DAY |
| Mar 7, 2026 | VCU 68 – 62 DAY |
| Feb 7, 2026 | VCU 99 – 73 DAY |
| Mar 8, 2025 | DAY 79 – 76 VCU |
| Feb 8, 2025 | VCU 73 – 68 DAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 14-4 |
| Home | 13-4 | 12-4 |
| Away | 7-6 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.2 | 62.4 |
| Massey | 4.7 (#101) | 7.5 (#67) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#121) | 1.48 (#63) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#142) | 1.93 (#63) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#131) | 0.573 (#58) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 23.9% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 40.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 27.1% |
| DRB% | 76.5% | 64.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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