Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | FLA -125 ALA +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +13 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | ALA -0.1 (-12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.6 (+5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -1.5 (-14.5) | 147.5 (+5.5) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -0.9 (-13.9) | 146.0 (+7.0) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -0.9 (-13.9) | 147.7 (+5.3) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -0.9 (-12.1) | 149.1 (+3.9) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | FLA 100 – 77 ALA |
| Mar 15, 2025 | FLA 104 – 82 ALA |
| Mar 6, 2025 | FLA 99 – 94 ALA |
| Mar 16, 2024 | FLA 102 – 88 ALA |
| Mar 6, 2024 | FLA 105 – 87 ALA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 9-9 |
| Home | 13-5 | 13-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 79.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 76.5 |
| Massey | 11.4 (#29) | 15.7 (#16) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.27 (#71) | 2.72 (#24) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.71 (#75) | 3.78 (#24) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#85) | 0.698 (#2) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 41.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.2% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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