Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.0 Over |
| Money | BUF -340 BGSU +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +11 | 187 | Won |
| Massey | BUF -9.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.8 (+22.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -7.3 (+3.7) | 161.8 (+25.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -5.6 (+5.4) | 158.1 (+28.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -5.6 (+5.4) | 159.9 (+27.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -5.7 (+5.3) | 160.0 (+27.0) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | BUF 89 – 78 BGSU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | BGSU 63 – 59 BUF |
| Jan 15, 2025 | BGSU 79 – 61 BUF |
| Feb 7, 2024 | BGSU 87 – 73 BUF |
| Jan 18, 2023 | BUF 100 – 71 BGSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-11 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 13-6 | 6-14 |
| Home | 9-3 | 9-7 |
| Away | 9-5 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.7 | 77.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 82.2 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#119) | -2.2 (#216) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#209) | -0.36 (#214) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#156) | -0.65 (#226) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#206) | 0.472 (#224) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 40.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 14.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 17.8% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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