Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Over |
| Money | SF +125 LUC -145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +5 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | LUC -6.3 (+1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.5 (+17.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -2.8 (-2.2) | 137.4 (+15.6) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -2.5 (-2.5) | 136.7 (+16.3) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -2.3 (-2.7) | 137.3 (+15.7) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -2.0 (-3.0) | 138.9 (+14.1) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 18, 2025 | SF 85 – 71 LUC |
| Mar 23, 2025 | LUC 77 – 76 SF |
| Dec 15, 2024 | SF 76 – 66 LUC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-10 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-4 | 12-2 |
| Away | 7-2 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.5 | 61.9 |
| Massey | 8.8 (#52) | 15.2 (#17) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.92 (#19) | 2.85 (#20) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.84 (#23) | 3.69 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.634 (#17) | 0.610 (#32) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 50.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 41.8% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 59.8% |
| TOV% | 22.2% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.0% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 75.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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