Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | SF -750 LUC +525 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +14 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | SF -20.1 (-6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (+11.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -14.1 (-0.1) | 139.3 (+16.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -14.7 (-0.7) | 141.1 (+14.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SF -15.5 (-1.5) | 139.3 (+16.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -16.3 (-2.3) | 136.9 (+19.1) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 23, 2025 | LUC 77 – 76 SF |
| Dec 15, 2024 | SF 76 – 66 LUC |
| Jan 6, 2022 | LUC 79 – 74 SF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 4-14 |
| Home | 10-6 | 6-10 |
| Away | 4-7 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 66.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 2.9 (#127) | -12.8 (#336) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#153) | -2.95 (#344) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#127) | -3.87 (#339) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#125) | 0.338 (#356) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 13.1% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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