Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | LUC +150 SF -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +10 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | SF -6.5 (-3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.6 (+6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -0.3 (-9.7) | 135.2 (+6.8) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -1.2 (-8.8) | 138.5 (+3.5) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SF -0.8 (-9.2) | 137.2 (+4.8) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -0.5 (-9.5) | 137.9 (+4.1) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 18, 2025 | SF 85 – 71 LUC |
| Mar 23, 2025 | LUC 77 – 76 SF |
| Jan 6, 2022 | LUC 79 – 74 SF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 13-5 |
| Home | 17-1 | 17-2 |
| Away | 7-5 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 1-6 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#104) | 10.4 (#51) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.22 (#12) | 1.51 (#68) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.18 (#17) | 2.08 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.615 (#33) | 0.562 (#78) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | SF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 49.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.79 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 56.7% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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