Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Over |
| Money | ETSU -140 VMI +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +1 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | ETSU -1.6 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.2 (+14.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -2.5 (-1.5) | 148.1 (+10.9) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -1.7 (-0.7) | 146.3 (+12.7) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -0.9 (+0.1) | 148.0 (+11.0) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -0.8 (+0.2) | 146.4 (+12.6) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | ETSU 87 – 70 VMI |
| Jan 8, 2026 | ETSU 81 – 67 VMI |
| Feb 5, 2025 | ETSU 62 – 55 VMI |
| Jan 1, 2025 | ETSU 84 – 69 VMI |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ETSU 98 – 66 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 8-6 | 9-4 |
| Away | 4-10 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 77.4 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#193) | 1.8 (#132) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#118) | 0.47 (#139) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#113) | 0.71 (#125) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#113) | 0.516 (#139) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 11.3% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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