Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Over |
| Money | UL -200 ARST +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +6 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | UL -7.5 (-1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.2 (+21.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -4.9 (+1.1) | 141.1 (+18.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UL -3.4 (+2.6) | 140.1 (+19.9) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UL -3.4 (+2.6) | 139.2 (+20.8) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -3.2 (+2.8) | 140.0 (+20.0) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | ARST 81 – 58 UL |
| Feb 20, 2026 | ARST 79 – 62 UL |
| Feb 27, 2025 | ARST 83 – 64 UL |
| Jan 17, 2025 | ARST 83 – 63 UL |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ARST 89 – 62 UL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 8-7 |
| Home | 7-6 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-8 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#139) | -1.9 (#208) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#151) | 0.80 (#111) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#162) | 0.71 (#126) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#167) | 0.513 (#143) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.0% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.4% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 23.2% | 23.1% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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