Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -10.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Over |
| Money | IDHO +400 MTST -550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDHO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +20 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | MTST -6.9 (-13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.9 (+14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -8.3 (-11.7) | 148.3 (+15.7) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -9.0 (-11.0) | 146.2 (+17.8) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -8.0 (-12.0) | 148.1 (+15.9) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -7.8 (-12.2) | 149.1 (+14.9) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2026 | IDHO 78 – 74 MTST |
| Feb 6, 2026 | MTST 73 – 66 IDHO |
| Jan 10, 2026 | IDHO 92 – 89 MTST |
| Mar 4, 2025 | MTST 75 – 60 IDHO |
| Jan 3, 2025 | IDHO 69 – 64 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDHO | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 16-4 |
| Home | 8-7 | 13-1 |
| Away | 1-12 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.3 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -10.7 (#331) | 0.3 (#163) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.25 (#331) | 0.37 (#145) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.97 (#291) | 0.29 (#150) |
| RPI | 0.380 (#338) | 0.516 (#137) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDHO | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.1% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.4% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 65.8% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 30.2% |
Game Analysis
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