Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -12.0 Push |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | ILL -700 MD +475 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +12 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -16.8 (-4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.3 (-2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -13.4 (-1.4) | 145.5 (-5.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -13.7 (-1.7) | 145.8 (-5.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -13.4 (-1.4) | 146.5 (-6.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -14.1 (-2.1) | 147.4 (-7.4) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | ILL 78 – 72 MD |
| Jan 22, 2026 | ILL 89 – 70 MD |
| Mar 14, 2025 | MD 88 – 65 ILL |
| Jan 24, 2025 | MD 91 – 70 ILL |
| Feb 17, 2024 | ILL 85 – 80 MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 7-13 |
| Home | 13-3 | 10-8 |
| Away | 7-4 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 17.5 (#11) | 4.8 (#101) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.33 (#38) | 0.51 (#136) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.27 (#32) | 0.75 (#123) |
| RPI | 0.617 (#29) | 0.535 (#114) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 39.9% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 43.8 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.1% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 41.5% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.5% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 17.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.