Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | TNST -210 UTM +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTM +16 | 172 | Lost |
| Massey | TNST -2.8 (-18.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.5 (+26.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -0.8 (-16.8) | 146.0 (+26.0) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -1.2 (-17.2) | 144.8 (+27.2) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -0.8 (-16.8) | 147.5 (+24.5) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -0.5 (-16.5) | 146.3 (+25.7) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | TNST 68 – 55 UTM |
| Feb 28, 2026 | TNST 67 – 42 UTM |
| Dec 19, 2025 | TNST 78 – 71 UTM |
| Feb 19, 2025 | TNST 86 – 75 UTM |
| Jan 22, 2025 | TNST 81 – 80 UTM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 8-22 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 4-14 |
| Home | 8-5 | 5-8 |
| Away | 5-10 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 66.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 74.9 |
| Massey | -8.2 (#303) | -6.9 (#284) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.87 (#311) | -0.84 (#250) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.42 (#317) | -1.20 (#256) |
| RPI | 0.349 (#351) | 0.439 (#275) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 12.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.4% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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