I've never done bad things. "Ashes to Ashes" - David Bowie
Pauley Pavilion · January 7, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread UCLA -26.0 Away covered
O/U 144.0 Over
Money UCLA -10000 / LBSU +2000
Model Predictions
Spread Total UCLA win
Actual UCLA +18 174 Won
Massey UCLA -25.3 (-7.3) — —
Massey Totals — 157.0 (+17.0) —
Bradley-Terry — — 99% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 100% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML UCLA -22.3 (-4.3) 153.4 (+20.6) 91% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ UCLA -23.1 (-5.1) 156.8 (+17.2) 91% ✓
Baseline Plus ML UCLA -20.5 (-2.5) 152.8 (+21.2) 91% ✓
Baseline ML UCLA -23.1 (-5.1) 155.7 (+18.3) 91% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 12, 2022 UCLA 93 – 69 LBSU
Nov 16, 2021 UCLA 100 – 79 LBSU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UCLA LBSU
Overall 27-8 20-13
Conference 15-5 12-3
Home 14-1 11-3
Away 8-4 6-7
Neutral 5-3 3-3
Last 5 4-1 1-4
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 75.4 72.4
Avg Pts Against 64.5 73.4
Massey 15.2 (#17) -6.0 (#269)
Bradley-Terry 3.21 (#14) -0.78 (#245)
W. Bradley-Terry 4.36 (#15) -0.63 (#223)
RPI 0.626 (#23) 0.512 (#146)
Shooting & Four Factors UCLA LBSU
FG% 45.3% 44.6%
3PT% 39.0% 32.6%
REB / G 41.3 34.3
OREB / G 13.6 10.0
AST / TO 1.60 0.63
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.7% 49.0%
TOV% 14.0% 22.4%
ORB% 35.6% 29.2%
FT Rate 18.3% 23.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.2% 55.3%
Opp TOV% 18.6% 17.4%
DRB% 79.6% 71.6%
Opp FT Rate 17.8% 22.1%

Game Analysis

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