All my failings exposed, gets a taste in my mouth as desperation takes hold "Love Will Tear Us Apart" - Joy Division
Pauley Pavilion · November 12, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread UCLA -19.5 Home covered
O/U 143.5 Over
Model Predictions
Spread Total UCLA win
Actual UCLA +24 162 Won
Massey UCLA -8.3 (+15.7) — —
Massey Totals — 137.2 (+24.8) —
Bradley-Terry — — 69% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 69% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML UCLA -5.2 (+18.8) 141.1 (+20.9) 60% ✓
Baseline ML UCLA -9.7 (+14.3) 137.7 (+24.3) 67% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 7, 2022 UCLA 96 – 78 LBSU
Nov 16, 2021 UCLA 100 – 79 LBSU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UCLA LBSU
Overall 31-6 17-16
Conference 18-2 11-9
Home 17-0 9-5
Away 9-2 6-9
Neutral 5-4 2-2
Last 5 1-0 1-0
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 74.1 75.6
Avg Pts Against 60.7 75.7
Massey 4.0 (#76) 9.7 (#14)
Bradley-Terry 0.43 (#110) 1.86 (#11)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.65 (#79) 2.70 (#8)
RPI — —
Shooting & Four Factors UCLA LBSU
FG% 53.1% 50.8%
3PT% 60.0% 40.0%
REB / G 33.0 43.0
OREB / G 9.0 11.0
AST / TO 1.33 1.70
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 57.8% 54.0%
TOV% 13.6% 14.5%
ORB% 29.0% 32.4%
FT Rate 3.1% 17.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 36.4% 38.7%
Opp TOV% 30.4% 16.9%
DRB% 61.5% 71.1%
Opp FT Rate 18.2% 25.8%

Game Analysis

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