Betting Lines
| Spread | ACU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | ACU -260 SFA +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ACU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +6 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | ACU -12.0 (-18.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.1 (-18.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ACU -9.8 (-15.8) | 140.2 (-18.2) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ACU -11.9 (-17.9) | 141.0 (-19.0) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ACU -10.6 (-16.6) | 141.1 (-19.1) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ACU -9.5 (-15.5) | 141.4 (-19.4) | 84% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2025 | SFA 76 – 66 ACU |
| Dec 31, 2024 | SFA 62 – 57 ACU |
| Mar 14, 2024 | SFA 60 – 57 ACU |
| Feb 17, 2024 | ACU 63 – 62 SFA |
| Dec 2, 2023 | SFA 79 – 74 ACU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ACU | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-11 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 14-4 |
| Home | 14-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 6-6 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#54) | 0.6 (#158) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.91 (#50) | 0.25 (#153) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.22 (#55) | 0.02 (#174) |
| RPI | 0.584 (#51) | 0.533 (#116) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ACU | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 34.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 29.1% | 23.1% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.4% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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