Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +30 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -0.6 (+29.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.9 (-7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -2.8 (+27.2) | 135.1 (-7.1) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -1.9 (+28.1) | 133.8 (-5.8) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -2.3 (+27.7) | 134.9 (-6.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -3.2 (+26.8) | 133.5 (-5.5) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | SDSU 71 – 62 CSU |
| Feb 21, 2026 | CSU 83 – 74 SDSU |
| Jan 29, 2026 | SDSU 73 – 50 CSU |
| Feb 9, 2025 | CSU 68 – 63 SDSU |
| Jan 15, 2025 | SDSU 75 – 60 CSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-9 | 25-6 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 14-4 |
| Home | 14-1 | 14-1 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-3 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.1 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 7.8 (#62) | 11.2 (#34) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.18 (#43) | 4.03 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.73 (#45) | 6.03 (#4) |
| RPI | 0.623 (#24) | 0.662 (#9) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 51.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 42.4% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 59.5% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 20.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.8% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 14.5% |
Game Analysis
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