Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +11 | 179 | Won |
| Massey | TNST -3.7 (+7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.6 (+16.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -2.6 (+8.4) | 159.5 (+19.5) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -2.3 (+8.7) | 159.6 (+19.4) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -2.6 (+8.4) | 158.1 (+20.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -2.6 (+8.4) | 157.3 (+21.7) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | TNST 79 – 71 SEMO |
| Dec 20, 2025 | SEMO 91 – 82 TNST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SEMO 89 – 87 TNST |
| Jan 3, 2025 | SEMO 67 – 65 TNST |
| Feb 10, 2024 | TNST 77 – 74 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-9 |
| Home | 8-5 | 8-5 |
| Away | 5-10 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 78.2 |
| Massey | -9.8 (#322) | -9.5 (#313) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.12 (#325) | -1.41 (#285) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.78 (#326) | -2.05 (#297) |
| RPI | 0.336 (#351) | 0.441 (#276) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.5% | 30.6% |
Game Analysis
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