Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -11.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | NAVY -700 BUCK +475 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +18 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | NAVY -18.7 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (-13.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -15.5 (+2.5) | 140.1 (-12.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -13.7 (+4.3) | 143.2 (-15.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -14.3 (+3.7) | 143.7 (-15.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -14.6 (+3.4) | 141.8 (-13.8) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | NAVY 74 – 69 BUCK |
| Feb 9, 2026 | NAVY 76 – 60 BUCK |
| Jan 8, 2026 | NAVY 76 – 55 BUCK |
| Mar 9, 2025 | NAVY 83 – 77 BUCK |
| Feb 1, 2025 | BUCK 85 – 75 NAVY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 5-13 |
| Home | 9-6 | 7-6 |
| Away | 11-5 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.8 | 79.4 |
| Massey | 4.8 (#99) | -9.9 (#323) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.97 (#96) | -2.25 (#330) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.05 (#107) | -2.77 (#325) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#118) | 0.379 (#336) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 22.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 13.0% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 16.1% |
Game Analysis
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