Betting Lines
| Spread | PV -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MVSU +2 | 166 | Lost |
| Massey | PV -15.8 (-17.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.6 (-1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PV -11.2 (-13.2) | 157.7 (+8.3) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PV -11.6 (-13.6) | 161.2 (+4.8) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PV -10.4 (-12.4) | 160.8 (+5.2) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PV -9.7 (-11.7) | 162.0 (+4.0) | 80% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | PV 72 – 62 MVSU |
| Jan 10, 2026 | PV 70 – 69 MVSU |
| Feb 25, 2025 | PV 64 – 56 MVSU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | PV 74 – 65 MVSU |
| Feb 27, 2024 | MVSU 57 – 51 PV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PV | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-19 | 2-26 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 2-16 |
| Home | 5-4 | 0-11 |
| Away | 3-15 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L4 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 83.0 |
| Massey | -10.0 (#327) | -21.8 (#358) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.99 (#315) | -4.31 (#354) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.65 (#321) | -6.05 (#357) |
| RPI | 0.467 (#232) | 0.372 (#338) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PV | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 35.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 29.4 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.47 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.7% | 41.0% |
| TOV% | 23.2% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.7% | 61.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 59.4% | 64.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 39.6% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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