Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UML +2 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | UMBC -4.1 (-6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (-13.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -3.2 (-5.2) | 142.9 (-12.9) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -2.0 (-4.0) | 143.1 (-13.1) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -0.8 (-2.8) | 144.3 (-14.3) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -1.5 (-3.5) | 145.0 (-15.0) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | UMBC 91 – 69 UML |
| Feb 28, 2026 | UMBC 84 – 60 UML |
| Jan 24, 2026 | UMBC 79 – 56 UML |
| Feb 20, 2025 | UML 98 – 79 UMBC |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UML 83 – 67 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | UML |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-4 | 8-6 |
| Away | 6-10 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 67.9 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#229) | -2.9 (#230) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#244) | -0.70 (#239) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#244) | -1.29 (#260) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#251) | 0.461 (#240) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | UML |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.1% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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