Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -8.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +15 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | VILL -7.0 (-8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.0 (+6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -6.7 (-8.3) | 134.8 (+8.2) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -5.9 (-9.1) | 135.5 (+7.5) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -6.1 (-8.9) | 135.7 (+7.3) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -6.3 (-8.7) | 136.1 (+6.9) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | VILL 76 – 57 DEP |
| Dec 31, 2025 | VILL 71 – 66 DEP |
| Feb 6, 2025 | VILL 59 – 49 DEP |
| Jan 4, 2025 | VILL 100 – 56 DEP |
| Mar 14, 2024 | VILL 58 – 57 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 30-8 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 16-4 |
| Home | 11-7 | 12-1 |
| Away | 4-9 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 10-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 62.7 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#84) | 17.5 (#12) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.39 (#64) | 3.03 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.91 (#65) | 4.40 (#12) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#95) | 0.654 (#11) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.4% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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