Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +6 | 178 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -17.3 (+23.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (+29.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -10.4 (+16.4) | 153.6 (+24.4) | 21% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -11.4 (+17.4) | 148.7 (+29.3) | 16% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -11.3 (+17.3) | 149.1 (+28.9) | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -12.2 (+18.2) | 151.1 (+26.9) | 20% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | ALA 90 – 64 MIZ |
| Feb 20, 2025 | MIZ 110 – 98 ALA |
| Jan 17, 2024 | ALA 93 – 75 MIZ |
| Mar 11, 2023 | ALA 72 – 61 MIZ |
| Jan 21, 2023 | ALA 85 – 64 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 9-9 |
| Home | 8-8 | 13-3 |
| Away | 2-10 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 79.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 76.5 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#253) | 16.6 (#14) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#203) | 2.91 (#19) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#205) | 3.98 (#20) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#216) | 0.706 (#1) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.8% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 23.8% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.9% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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