Betting Lines
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | TA&M +115 ARK -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TA&M win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TA&M +5 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | TA&M -3.4 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.0 (+19.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TA&M -2.8 (+2.2) | 146.3 (+20.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TA&M -5.1 (-0.1) | 148.6 (+18.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TA&M -4.7 (+0.3) | 150.3 (+16.7) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TA&M -5.1 (-0.1) | 151.1 (+15.9) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | ARK 99 – 84 TA&M |
| Feb 15, 2025 | TA&M 69 – 61 ARK |
| Feb 21, 2024 | ARK 78 – 71 TA&M |
| Jan 17, 2024 | ARK 78 – 77 TA&M |
| Mar 11, 2023 | TA&M 67 – 61 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TA&M | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-13 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 13-5 |
| Home | 16-4 | 17-1 |
| Away | 5-5 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 6.9 (#77) | 7.5 (#68) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.29 (#40) | 0.99 (#93) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.70 (#47) | 1.57 (#78) |
| RPI | 0.567 (#61) | 0.541 (#101) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TA&M | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.6% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.9% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 78.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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