Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | FAIR -160 MRST +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRST +9 | 111 | Lost |
| Massey | FAIR -4.9 (-13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.3 (-26.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -2.5 (-11.5) | 135.9 (-24.9) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -2.7 (-11.7) | 137.1 (-26.1) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -2.1 (-11.1) | 138.5 (-27.5) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -2.3 (-11.3) | 138.6 (-27.6) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | FAIR 63 – 60 MRST |
| Jan 17, 2026 | MRST 82 – 67 FAIR |
| Feb 7, 2025 | FAIR 59 – 56 MRST |
| Jan 12, 2025 | MRST 61 – 51 FAIR |
| Mar 16, 2024 | FAIR 65 – 61 MRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 9-11 |
| Home | 6-9 | 7-6 |
| Away | 8-8 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 1.8 (#134) | 0.9 (#148) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#168) | -0.06 (#180) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.00 (#174) | -0.13 (#186) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#191) | 0.486 (#200) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 16.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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