Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +25 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | DAY -6.5 (-18.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.5 (+12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -7.1 (-17.9) | 131.9 (+9.1) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -6.2 (-18.8) | 131.1 (+9.9) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -6.4 (-18.6) | 134.2 (+6.8) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -7.5 (-17.5) | 133.6 (+7.4) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | DAY 68 – 66 GW |
| Jan 7, 2026 | DAY 79 – 72 GW |
| Jan 4, 2025 | GW 82 – 62 DAY |
| Jan 31, 2024 | DAY 83 – 61 GW |
| Jan 21, 2023 | GW 76 – 69 DAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GW | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-18 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 14-4 |
| Home | 8-5 | 13-4 |
| Away | 3-10 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.4 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.8 | 61.2 |
| Massey | -6.0 (#274) | 4.6 (#106) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.46 (#290) | 0.39 (#143) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.68 (#281) | 0.31 (#156) |
| RPI | 0.403 (#317) | 0.505 (#163) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GW | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 16.4% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 17.0% |
Game Analysis
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