Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +4 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | ND -0.3 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.4 (+7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GT -0.3 (-4.3) | 133.7 (+6.3) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GT -0.3 (-4.3) | 135.3 (+4.7) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ND -0.2 (-3.8) | 136.0 (+4.0) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -0.3 (-3.7) | 135.6 (+4.4) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | ND 89 – 74 GT |
| Jan 29, 2025 | ND 71 – 68 GT |
| Dec 31, 2024 | GT 86 – 75 ND |
| Mar 12, 2024 | ND 84 – 80 GT |
| Feb 15, 2024 | ND 58 – 55 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GT | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 15-5 |
| Home | 9-10 | 14-1 |
| Away | 3-8 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-5 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#157) | 5.0 (#98) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#205) | 1.12 (#86) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#184) | 1.35 (#92) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#210) | 0.565 (#69) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GT | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 78.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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