Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -19.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Over |
| Money | TOL -4000 NIU +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +31 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -20.0 (+11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.0 (+27.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -18.9 (+12.1) | 140.1 (+16.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -16.6 (+14.4) | 137.5 (+19.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -18.5 (+12.5) | 134.6 (+22.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -17.2 (+13.8) | 138.1 (+18.9) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | TOL 79 – 69 NIU |
| Jan 7, 2026 | TOL 75 – 61 NIU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | TOL 89 – 85 NIU |
| Feb 28, 2024 | NIU 75 – 72 TOL |
| Jan 24, 2024 | TOL 89 – 73 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 6-14 |
| Home | 13-2 | 3-8 |
| Away | 9-5 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 64.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 6.3 (#86) | -9.7 (#317) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.20 (#76) | -1.15 (#268) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.47 (#86) | -1.38 (#264) |
| RPI | 0.566 (#67) | 0.430 (#287) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 37.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 40.9 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 43.2% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 23.4% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 24.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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