Betting Lines
| Spread | EMU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BALL +6 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | EMU -7.3 (-13.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.2 (-7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EMU -2.3 (-8.3) | 152.2 (-2.2) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EMU -5.0 (-11.0) | 152.6 (-2.6) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | EMU -5.0 (-11.0) | 153.1 (-3.1) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EMU -4.1 (-10.1) | 153.8 (-3.8) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2026 | EMU 74 – 52 BALL |
| Feb 12, 2025 | BALL 86 – 84 EMU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | EMU 58 – 56 BALL |
| Jan 17, 2024 | BALL 76 – 62 EMU |
| Feb 25, 2023 | EMU 75 – 68 BALL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EMU | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 9-10 |
| Home | 8-7 | 9-5 |
| Away | 2-14 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 77.4 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#251) | -7.7 (#294) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.24 (#198) | -0.81 (#248) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#197) | -1.12 (#255) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#139) | 0.439 (#279) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EMU | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 22.4% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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