Betting Lines
| O/U | 125.0 Over |
| Money | AAMU +100 ALCN -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AAMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +7 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | ALCN -1.3 (-5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.5 (+26.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALCN -0.2 (-6.8) | 129.1 (+19.9) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALCN -1.7 (-5.3) | 129.9 (+19.1) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALCN -1.4 (-5.6) | 131.1 (+17.9) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALCN -2.1 (-4.9) | 130.0 (+19.0) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | ALCN 64 – 62 AAMU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | ALCN 62 – 52 AAMU |
| Mar 13, 2024 | AAMU 75 – 63 ALCN |
| Jan 12, 2024 | ALCN 74 – 71 AAMU |
| Jan 7, 2023 | ALCN 89 – 76 AAMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AAMU | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-18 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 14-4 |
| Home | 6-3 | 6-3 |
| Away | 4-14 | 9-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.4 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.0 | 71.1 |
| Massey | -9.6 (#314) | -4.3 (#250) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.39 (#284) | -0.94 (#257) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.90 (#289) | -0.94 (#239) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#289) | 0.489 (#194) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AAMU | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.0% | 37.9% |
| 3PT% | 27.3% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.4% | 42.3% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 15.5% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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