Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +2 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | PITT -1.8 (+0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.4 (+12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -1.3 (+0.7) | 126.3 (+9.7) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -1.1 (+0.9) | 129.0 (+7.0) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -0.3 (+1.7) | 130.9 (+5.1) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BC -0.4 (+2.4) | 128.2 (+7.8) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | BC 65 – 62 PITT |
| Mar 8, 2025 | PITT 93 – 67 BC |
| Mar 2, 2024 | PITT 90 – 65 BC |
| Feb 15, 2023 | PITT 77 – 58 BC |
| Mar 8, 2022 | BC 66 – 46 PITT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | BC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 6-14 |
| Home | 9-11 | 9-7 |
| Away | 2-9 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.5 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 68.1 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#204) | 0.7 (#156) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#227) | -0.58 (#228) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.02 (#246) | -0.28 (#201) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#208) | 0.437 (#281) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | BC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 30.6% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 79.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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