Betting Lines
| Spread | HARV -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | HARV -170 BRWN +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HARV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRWN +11 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | HARV -4.2 (-15.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.6 (+17.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HARV -1.8 (-12.8) | 140.7 (+16.3) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HARV -2.7 (-13.7) | 141.2 (+15.8) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HARV -2.2 (-13.2) | 143.5 (+13.5) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HARV -2.1 (-13.1) | 143.4 (+13.6) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | HARV 56 – 53 BRWN |
| Jan 31, 2026 | HARV 69 – 59 BRWN |
| Feb 28, 2025 | BRWN 59 – 52 HARV |
| Jan 18, 2025 | HARV 80 – 67 BRWN |
| Mar 2, 2024 | BRWN 71 – 68 HARV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HARV | BRWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-13 | 13-16 |
| Conference | 5-9 | 5-9 |
| Home | 9-6 | 6-7 |
| Away | 4-7 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.0 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#169) | -0.2 (#173) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#226) | -0.31 (#204) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#214) | -0.27 (#198) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#225) | 0.489 (#193) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HARV | BRWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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