Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -10.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +12 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | BAY -9.1 (-2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.9 (+3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -6.8 (-5.2) | 141.0 (-1.0) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -6.2 (-5.8) | 142.0 (-2.0) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -6.6 (-5.4) | 143.4 (-3.4) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -7.4 (-4.6) | 143.7 (-3.7) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | TCU 97 – 90 BAY |
| Jan 3, 2026 | TCU 69 – 63 BAY |
| Mar 5, 2025 | BAY 61 – 58 TCU |
| Jan 19, 2025 | TCU 74 – 71 BAY |
| Feb 27, 2024 | BAY 62 – 54 TCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TCU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 27-7 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 14-4 |
| Home | 12-4 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.9 | 64.1 |
| Massey | 8.3 (#57) | 21.5 (#2) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.20 (#42) | 5.71 (#1) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.26 (#55) | 8.31 (#1) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#57) | 0.652 (#12) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TCU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 49.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 43.7 | 39.9 |
| OREB / G | 15.9 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 56.0% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 41.4% | 39.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 16.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 26.1% |
| DRB% | 76.5% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.8% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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