Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +14 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | SOU -1.8 (-12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.3 (+14.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -2.7 (-11.3) | 136.3 (+9.7) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -4.5 (-9.5) | 133.9 (+12.1) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -5.0 (-9.0) | 134.2 (+11.8) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -4.4 (-9.6) | 134.4 (+11.6) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | SOU 73 – 70 FAMU |
| Feb 27, 2026 | FAMU 82 – 71 SOU |
| Jan 11, 2026 | FAMU 67 – 59 SOU |
| Mar 4, 2025 | SOU 73 – 70 FAMU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | SOU 91 – 57 FAMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAMU | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-17 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 12-6 |
| Home | 8-4 | 10-2 |
| Away | 5-12 | 8-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.6 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 68.4 |
| Massey | -8.6 (#302) | -2.7 (#223) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.15 (#345) | -0.04 (#176) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.34 (#350) | -0.40 (#206) |
| RPI | 0.382 (#333) | 0.497 (#175) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAMU | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.1% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 22.3% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 28.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.7% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 14.9% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 25.5% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 32.0% |
Game Analysis
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