Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | FAMU +145 SOU -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAMU +8 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | SOU -0.7 (+8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.2 (-33.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAMU -0.3 (+7.7) | 150.1 (-24.1) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -0.3 (+8.3) | 150.1 (-24.1) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAMU -1.0 (+7.0) | 148.0 (-22.0) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAMU -0.6 (+7.4) | 148.7 (-22.7) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | SOU 73 – 70 FAMU |
| Feb 27, 2026 | FAMU 82 – 71 SOU |
| Mar 4, 2025 | SOU 73 – 70 FAMU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | SOU 91 – 57 FAMU |
| Mar 5, 2024 | SOU 58 – 44 FAMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAMU | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 8-4 | 8-4 |
| Away | 5-11 | 7-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 80.2 |
| Massey | -13.2 (#340) | -9.1 (#300) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.96 (#326) | -2.03 (#329) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.56 (#324) | -2.90 (#332) |
| RPI | 0.429 (#296) | 0.405 (#333) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAMU | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 30.1 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.4% | 56.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 63.0% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.3% | 35.7% |
Game Analysis
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