Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | FAMU +190 SOU -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +3 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | SOU -3.9 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.2 (+1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -3.6 (+0.6) | 139.7 (+3.3) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -2.6 (-0.4) | 138.5 (+4.5) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -2.6 (-0.4) | 139.7 (+3.3) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -2.9 (-0.1) | 139.9 (+3.1) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | SOU 73 – 70 FAMU |
| Feb 27, 2026 | FAMU 82 – 71 SOU |
| Jan 11, 2026 | FAMU 67 – 59 SOU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | SOU 91 – 57 FAMU |
| Mar 5, 2024 | SOU 58 – 44 FAMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAMU | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 15-3 |
| Home | 9-3 | 11-1 |
| Away | 4-13 | 9-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 69.5 |
| Massey | -10.7 (#330) | -3.5 (#223) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.30 (#292) | -0.29 (#197) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.73 (#293) | -0.22 (#179) |
| RPI | 0.471 (#238) | 0.503 (#176) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAMU | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.3% | 30.0% |
Game Analysis
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