Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +10 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -6.8 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.2 (+6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -6.5 (+3.5) | 147.4 (+8.6) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -6.7 (+3.3) | 146.4 (+9.6) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -6.7 (+3.3) | 148.0 (+8.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -6.6 (+3.4) | 149.1 (+6.9) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | SJU 85 – 72 PROV |
| Feb 14, 2026 | SJU 79 – 69 PROV |
| Jan 3, 2026 | PROV 77 – 71 SJU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SJU 68 – 66 PROV |
| Dec 21, 2024 | SJU 72 – 70 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-6 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 14-3 | 8-11 |
| Home | 16-1 | 13-6 |
| Away | 7-2 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 79.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 9.1 (#50) | 6.3 (#87) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.49 (#10) | 1.16 (#80) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.82 (#24) | 2.06 (#59) |
| RPI | 0.662 (#8) | 0.534 (#114) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 23.3% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.1% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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