Betting Lines
| Spread | ULM -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ULM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +7 | 173 | Lost |
| Massey | ULM -1.0 (-8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.9 (+20.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ULM -0.1 (-7.1) | 149.5 (+23.5) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ULM -1.4 (-8.4) | 150.6 (+22.4) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ULM -0.8 (-7.8) | 150.4 (+22.6) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ULM -0.2 (-7.2) | 150.9 (+22.1) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ARST 102 – 94 ULM |
| Feb 12, 2026 | ARST 103 – 70 ULM |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ARST 94 – 67 ULM |
| Feb 22, 2025 | ARST 95 – 70 ULM |
| Feb 3, 2024 | ARST 95 – 80 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ULM | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 8-7 |
| Home | 7-7 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-10 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 68.8 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#255) | -1.8 (#209) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#147) | 0.55 (#131) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#153) | 0.47 (#144) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#106) | 0.505 (#164) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ULM | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 29.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 65.1% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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