Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -7.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +25 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -6.1 (+18.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.7 (-12.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -4.8 (+20.2) | 158.0 (-13.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -5.2 (+19.8) | 155.9 (-10.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -5.4 (+19.6) | 154.9 (-9.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -5.9 (+19.1) | 155.8 (-10.8) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | SAM 88 – 74 WCU |
| Jan 8, 2026 | SAM 82 – 77 WCU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | SAM 93 – 72 WCU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | SAM 88 – 69 WCU |
| Feb 15, 2024 | SAM 88 – 62 WCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 5-13 |
| Home | 13-2 | 8-5 |
| Away | 5-8 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 78.2 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#235) | -5.4 (#268) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#113) | -0.70 (#238) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#143) | -1.02 (#247) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#146) | 0.455 (#252) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 13.6% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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