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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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66–30 on winners spread MAE 9.0 96 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Lafayette @ Holy Cross -2.3 136.1 42% 74–79 ✗
Bucknell @ Navy +18.6 140.4 95% 55–73 ✓
Cornell @ Pennsylvania +2.2 162.4 58% 65–79 ✓
Columbia @ Princeton +22.7 157.2 98% 69–84 ✓
Brown @ Harvard +3.8 139.1 63% 84–73 ✗
Milwaukee @ Detroit Mercy +7.9 132.8 76% 60–85 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Youngstown State +10.7 141.6 83% 71–61 ✗
Cleveland State @ Robert Morris -4.5 148.7 34% 78–77 ✓
Marist @ Fairfield +4.9 137.4 67% 60–51 ✗
Xavier @ Butler -10.2 126.1 18% 87–72 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Nicholls +3.5 149.1 63% 75–84 ✓
Purdue @ Penn State -7.6 140.4 24% 74–67 ✓
Wichita State @ Houston +19.1 131.2 96% 66–76 ✓
St. John's @ Providence +8.2 149.1 77% 73–83 ✓
UConn @ Seton Hall +1.6 144.8 56% 87–90 ✓
Houston Christian @ Incarnate Word +0.8 139.2 53% 50–60 ✓
Clemson @ NC State -3.4 152.6 38% 70–65 ✓
UAlbany @ New Hampshire +11.6 125.3 85% 62–64 ✓
Duquesne @ Massachusetts +6.9 159.3 73% 78–74 ✗
Dayton @ George Washington -6.7 128.5 27% 83–58 ✓
South Carolina @ Vanderbilt +8.2 129.5 77% 72–70 ✗
California Baptist @ Chicago State -7.8 136.1 24% 56–58 ✗
Merrimack @ Central Connecticut -0.2 122.1 49% 66–57 ✓
Virginia @ North Carolina +6.6 131.0 73% 58–74 ✓
North Dakota State @ Omaha -6.2 144.1 29% 71–67 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ VMI +8.0 131.2 77% 72–56 ✗
Arkansas @ Texas A&M +3.8 147.5 64% 81–86 ✓
Texas @ Oklahoma State -5.4 121.3 31% 51–64 ✗
Villanova @ DePaul -8.4 136.5 22% 79–64 ✓
East Carolina @ Temple +6.2 137.4 71% 75–78 ✓
Saint Francis @ Long Island University +8.9 152.6 79% 70–75 ✓
Hampton @ Gardner-Webb +17.3 122.9 94% 69–78 ✓
Syracuse @ Wake Forest +8.6 162.6 78% 74–77 ✓
Maine @ Stony Brook +19.1 133.4 96% 72–80 ✓
Kansas State @ West Virginia +6.5 123.5 72% 68–71 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Wright State +19.7 127.8 96% 58–72 ✓
Rhode Island @ Davidson +7.4 134.9 75% 68–72 ✓
VCU @ La Salle -9.6 119.9 19% 85–66 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Toledo +20.3 129.7 97% 63–94 ✓
Nebraska @ Rutgers +8.6 145.2 78% 65–93 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Northwestern State -7.5 157.0 25% 80–79 ✓
Florida International @ Western Kentucky +9.9 143.2 82% 71–84 ✓
Arkansas State @ UL Monroe +0.5 153.0 52% 90–83 ✗
UT Arlington @ Georgia Southern +5.7 126.3 70% 73–74 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Western Illinois +0.4 156.0 52% 87–86 ✗
Western Carolina @ Samford +7.0 158.7 74% 60–85 ✓
Alabama @ Missouri -17.4 147.5 6% 86–92 ✗
Ball State @ Eastern Michigan +7.3 158.4 75% 78–72 ✗
Kansas @ Texas Tech -0.3 144.3 49% 67–75 ✗
Colorado State @ San Diego State +0.5 135.5 52% 49–79 ✓
South Florida @ Tulane +8.8 125.7 79% 54–68 ✓
Coppin State @ South Carolina State +3.0 151.1 61% 74–65 ✗
Hawai'i @ Long Beach State +3.0 155.9 61% 72–67 ✗
Cal Poly @ Cal State Northridge +2.6 122.2 59% 55–68 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Tennessee State +4.6 162.7 66% 84–95 ✓
Murray State @ SIU Edwardsville -11.2 139.8 15% 74–69 ✓
Grambling @ Bethune-Cookman +4.2 133.4 65% 68–66 ✗
Southern @ Florida A&M -2.6 131.2 41% 80–66 ✓
UAB @ Rice -9.4 154.5 20% 80–85 ✗
Louisiana Tech @ UTSA -15.0 143.7 9% 79–63 ✓
Sacramento State @ Northern Colorado +13.6 142.1 89% 85–71 ✗
Utah Tech @ Utah Valley +20.4 148.0 97% 71–79 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ St. Francis Brooklyn +4.2 129.3 65% 69–61 ✗
South Carolina Upstate @ Presbyterian +7.2 131.4 74% 82–72 ✗
Boston College @ Pittsburgh +1.2 123.3 54% 67–69 ✓
NJIT @ Binghamton +4.9 136.2 67% 67–56 ✗
Bradley @ Loyola Chicago +15.3 137.1 92% 71–78 ✓
North Dakota @ Denver +12.6 146.0 87% 74–93 ✓
Mercer @ Furman +11.0 147.8 84% 66–81 ✓
Wofford @ East Tennessee State -2.0 139.6 43% 68–57 ✓
The Citadel @ Chattanooga +19.3 149.7 96% 67–85 ✓
Belmont @ UT Martin -13.7 150.5 11% 81–55 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Radford +3.3 130.5 62% 73–72 ✗
Charleston Southern @ UNC Asheville +19.2 143.9 96% 59–82 ✓
Baylor @ TCU -8.6 137.2 22% 76–64 ✓
Drake @ Evansville -10.3 132.1 17% 60–59 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Bowling Green -0.0 161.6 50% 83–87 ✗
Morehead State @ Austin Peay -5.4 138.7 31% 66–55 ✓
App State @ Troy +3.7 129.4 63% 53–68 ✓
Stetson @ North Florida +2.5 133.6 59% 68–66 ✗
Alcorn State @ Alabama A&M -0.2 122.8 49% 78–71 ✓
Jackson State @ Alabama State -0.3 131.1 49% 57–72 ✗
Mississippi Valley State @ Prairie View A&M +17.2 168.6 94% 84–82 ✗
UMass Lowell @ UMBC +3.7 143.1 63% 66–64 ✗
Iowa State @ Oklahoma +2.6 123.6 59% 66–79 ✓
Georgia @ Kentucky +23.7 148.6 98% 77–92 ✓
Tennessee @ LSU +6.5 128.6 72% 67–79 ✓
McNeese @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +4.8 149.9 67% 54–67 ✓
Washington State @ Utah -0.7 140.2 47% 77–61 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ North Texas +8.8 119.8 79% 63–70 ✓
Notre Dame @ Georgia Tech -0.8 133.1 47% 72–68 ✓
Cornell @ Princeton +7.6 169.0 75% 70–72 ✓
Columbia @ Pennsylvania +17.5 150.9 94% 73–69 ✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ Jacksonville +5.7 128.2 70% 66–69 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Missouri State +6.4 141.4 72% 85–84 ✗
Idaho @ Eastern Washington +13.6 159.7 89% 93–96 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.