I'm gonna tell you how it's gonna be. "Not Fade Away"-The Rolling Stones
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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25–13 on winners spread MAE 7.3 38 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Florida Atlantic @ Marshall +3.4 155.4 62% 90–77 ✗
Sam Houston @ Abilene Christian +15.8 141.1 92% 65–63 ✗
San Diego @ San Francisco +15.4 126.2 92% 73–88 ✓
Brown @ Dartmouth -1.0 135.2 47% 46–58 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Bellarmine +0.2 152.8 51% 61–66 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Valparaiso +1.0 123.1 54% 63–60 ✗
South Dakota @ South Dakota State +18.4 157.7 95% 65–84 ✓
Miami @ Duke +17.7 157.5 95% 76–74 ✗
UCLA @ California -6.9 140.1 27% 60–52 ✓
Florida @ Auburn +12.2 140.0 87% 73–85 ✓
Iona @ Saint Louis +5.0 150.4 68% 67–68 ✓
UC Irvine @ UC Riverside -0.1 115.6 50% 68–51 ✓
UC San Diego @ UC Davis +5.5 134.8 69% 71–78 ✓
New Mexico State @ UT Rio Grande Valley -6.7 155.0 27% 85–73 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Tarleton State +1.8 121.4 57% 71–77 ✓
Louisville @ Florida State +4.6 134.6 66% 70–79 ✓
Utah State @ New Mexico -5.3 158.9 32% 90–87 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Nicholls +9.6 153.4 81% 77–72 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Texas Southern +18.3 133.2 95% 71–90 ✓
Mississippi State @ Ole Miss -3.9 127.1 36% 72–82 ✗
Pepperdine @ Gonzaga +31.8 151.1 100% 83–117 ✓
Southern Miss @ UTEP +12.3 126.7 87% 54–87 ✓
Jacksonville State @ North Alabama -3.9 127.7 36% 65–55 ✓
Saint Mary's @ BYU +6.0 128.9 71% 43–52 ✓
Minnesota @ Indiana +8.5 132.6 78% 60–73 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Robert Morris +1.0 146.1 54% 76–70 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Niagara +7.2 134.6 74% 66–76 ✓
Cleveland State @ Youngstown State +2.0 143.4 57% 86–80 ✗
Rider @ Marist +14.0 132.4 90% 79–75 ✗
Fairfield @ Siena -6.7 131.3 27% 62–69 ✗
Lipscomb @ Central Arkansas -4.8 157.7 33% 88–93 ✗
Cincinnati @ Memphis +6.1 138.6 71% 80–87 ✓
Milwaukee @ Oakland +18.3 131.8 95% 65–86 ✓
Hofstra @ James Madison +0.2 145.2 51% 87–80 ✗
Elon @ Charleston +13.5 158.6 89% 61–65 ✓
Northeastern @ Towson +13.5 129.2 89% 67–70 ✓
Washington @ Colorado +8.8 140.6 79% 64–78 ✓
Northwestern @ Ohio State +7.1 145.0 74% 87–95 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.